R.I.P. NBC, CBS, ABC and Fox

The "Summer Preview" issue of TV Guide is out. In the old days, summer meant nothing but reruns. But TV Guide lists 52 of the "hottest shows" coming out this summer. The magazine lists 35 scripted shows and 17 reality shows. Of the 35 scripted shows, only three are on a major network, and all three belong to NBC: "Merlin," the adventures of the legendary sorceror as a young man, "The Listener," about a paramedic who can read minds, and "The Philanthropist," about a suave billionare adventurer, who, you guessed it, tries to do good deeds involving his money. I hope they're better then they sound. That leaves 32 scripted shows on cable channels out of the 35 that TV Guide believes deserve recognition - shows like TNT's "The Closer" and "Leverage," and AMC's "Mad Men." Other shows mentioned are on channels like Lifetime, the Sci Fi Channel, USA, HBO, and even the Cartoon Network, which is coming out with "Total Drama Action," an animated satire of reality shows like "Survivor." In its list of 52 hottest shows, TV Guide lists 17 reality shows. Seven of them are on major broadcast channels - shows like NBC's "I'm a Celebrity...Get Me Out of Here!" and CBS's "Big Brother 11." Cable has its share of reality shows - Bravo's "Kathy Griffin: My Life on the D-List" is going into its 5th season - but the lack of scripted shows on the major networks is what is driving the best writers and actors to turn to cable. Stars like Kyra Sedgwick ("The Closer") and Timothy Hutton ("Leverage") are on TNT. Mary-Louise Parker stars on Showtime's "Weeds," and she will be joined this season by guest star Jennifer Jason Leigh, who's playing her estranged sister. The star-power continues on cable as the new show "Dark Blue" comes to TNT starring Dylan McDermott and produced by Jerry Bruckheimer, one of the most successful movie and TV producers on the planet. When Jay Leno comes to NBC in the fall, another five hours of scripted shows go with it, so look to cable for quality programming that involves writers and actors - as opposed to talk shows, game shows, talent shows, and other types of reality shows where regular people make fools of themselves at a very low cost. The major networks will be saving money in the short-run by programming cheap reality shows and dropping shows that are expensive to produce. But they will pay for it in the end, when viewers discover cable and never come back. NBC, CBS, ABC and Fox - rest in peace.

Reality Shows Sell More Products

Scripted TV shows bring in younger and higher income viewers than reality shows, according to a new survey by the marketing research firm Experian Simmons. Reality shows, however, are cheaper to produce, and according to the web site MediaPost.com, they do a better job of engaging the viewer. For example, reality shows such as "American Idol" and "Survivor" are more "inspirational" and "life-enhancing" than scripted shows, and viewers experience a better "personal connection." Because the viewer connects on a more personal level with reality shows - "Britain's Got Talent's" Susan Boyle is an example of a reality contestant who jumped continents to inspire viewers with her unusual life story - the Experian Simmons survey notes that "advertisers that buy time on broadcast reality programs have a better opportunity of getting their products noticed and ultimately purchased than if they advertised on broadcast dramas." This is not good news for those of us with a higher education and a higher income, who like to come home from a long day at work, pop open a cold Bud Light, and watch CBS's long-running "Without a Trace" or NBC's quirky new cop show "Life". The reality of reality shows is that they are cheaper to produce, and a report showing that they are more effective at selling products, if indeed true, will only mean less scripted shows and more moves like the NBC strategy of putting Jay Leno on 5 nights a week beginning in the fall at 10 p.m. If this type of programming is effective, look for more. Primetime will become a mixture of talk shows and "Celebrities Trying to Get Out of the Jungle" shows. Cable is the last frontier, but look for more shows to get the ax like TNT's "Trust Me," which lasted a season, as opposed to shows like AMC's "Breaking Bad," which is being given time for its audience to grow. But there will always be a need for scripted shows, because if the Experian Simmons survey is accurate, people with higher incomes favor scripted shows. And these people spend more on premium cable channels, so there will always be room for shows like Showtime's "Dexter" and HBO's "Entourage" and "In Treatment." These are on pay TV, so there's no need to worry about advertisers. And as scripted shows disappear on broadcast channels, the ratings are going up on premium cable. The previously mentioned "Without a Trace" (CBS) and "Life" (NBC) were both canceled. But luckily, "Dexter" will air this fall on Showtime. Until then, I'll be watching Major League Baseball on ESPN.